I had the privilege of attending the C.L.R. James Memorial Lecture, hosted by the Oil Workers’ Trade Union of Trinidad and Tobago (OWTU) and the Ciprini Labour College last Thursday, where I heard a very interesting presentation by Professor Norman Girvan. Professor Girvan spoke of the life and work of the late CLR James which inspired and motivated me immensely, but it was his presentation on Existential Threats in the Caribbean: Democratising Politics, Regionalising Governance that so impassioned me, I had to write this piece.
Professor Girvan spoke on what he called existential threats, which he defined as:
“systemic challenges to the viability of our states as functioning socio-economic-ecological systems; due to the intersection of climatic, economic, social and political development”.
From the presentation, one main theme stood out and rang loudly in my ears: Professor Girvan was essentially saying that should things continue the way they do today in the region, then sooner than we think CARICOM States, and by extension the West Indies as we know it will cease to exist. As ominous and apocalyptic as this sounds, -and I am sure the CMCE-isinclined to agree with him.
Professor Girvan noted in his presentation that devastating hurricanes have become a permanent, recurrent phenomenon in our reality. He goes as far as to call it an integral feature in Caribbean development. And he is right. We can look forward to at least 1-3 devastating hurricanes per year, leaving economic wreckage in their wake as they move through our islands. Barely are some countries able to recover from a previous hurricane before they are hit by another.
- Hurricane Thomas in St Lucia, 2010
Added to this, is the depressing economic situation faced by the region; in his presentation, Professor Girvan quoted some recent statistics:
“there is still a significant level of poverty (in Caricom) despite the middle level per capita income that has been achieved. The level of poverty was reported to be 27 percent in St Kitts, 15.9 percent in Nevis, 37.7 percent in Grenada, 18.4 percent in Antigua and Barbuda, 14.5 percent in Jamaica, 28.8 percent in St. Lucia, and 16.7 percent in Trinidad and Tobago.
If this level of poverty keeps rising then we are indeed headed for big trouble; and further existential threats seem determined to get us there. One such threat he spoke about is food security; and rightly so. The region is a net importer of food. We import most of what we eat, or what we use to make our food. According to the Professor:
Food imports is one of the fastest growing items in the overall import bill and at $3.5 billion, are about three times the value of exports of agricultural products. The recent spike in the prices of food commodities in international markets, due largely to speculative purchases, has left most countries without a cushion and created severe political pressures.
Indeed, food security has become an extremely critical matter for CARICOM countries in light of global occurrences beyond our control, and its gets even more serious. According to one article of the Foreign Policy online magazine( found here), it reads:
Already in 2011, the U.N. Food Price Index has eclipsed its previous all-time global high; as of March it had climbed for eight consecutive months. With this year’s harvest predicted to fall short, with governments in the Middle East and Africa teetering as a result of the price spikes, and with anxious markets sustaining one shock after another, food has quickly become the hidden driver of world politics. And crises like these are going to become increasingly common. The new geopolitics of food looks a whole lot more volatile — and a whole lot more contentious — than it used to. Scarcity is the new norm.
Now this is what I call ominous. With a steady increase in food prices internationally, and scarcity becoming the new norm, more of our people will be thrown into dire poverty, especially those who are already poor and spend the majority of their income on food. We do not have to be reminded of the effect the increase in oil prices in 2008 had on the price of food here in the region. Now, oil prices are not the only issue we have to grapple with where food prices are concerned, we are starting to grappling with the scarcity of food itself.
The world’s population is increasing beyond sustainable levels, as an additional 219,000 mouths turn up at the dinner table every night. This increase in population is starting to take a toll on the environment, and is already starting to severely diminish its capacity to produce adequate food. In the meantime farm lands are already giving way to housing projects, even in the Caribbean context.
Farm Lands being bulldozed by the Trinidad and Tobago Housing Development Corporation
Droughts, great forest fires and severe heat waves are also becoming a permanent feature of our global reality- recall the severe drought and forest fires of Russia in 2010, which drove up the price of grains, wheat and cereals. We can be sure that such occurrences are here to stay, especially since addressing climate change is not a current priority for many world leaders such as the United States, the biggest contributor to greenhouse gases.
Great fires are also becoming a permanent feature of our global reality
What will happen to us if countries stop selling us their food, and keep it to feed their own citizens? We saw it when Russia banned the export of grains in 2010 in order to feed its own people during the severe drought, resulting in a shortage and a spike in the price of grain food products on the international market.
As “independent” nations, we have allowed ourselves to become totally dependent on other countries for the very food we eat. The price of gas, political turmoil, environmental catastrophes- any of these events in other countries can cause us in the region to go hungry, triggering mass social unrest. This should give us good enough reason to be thoroughly ashamed of ourselves.
And what of regional tourism, the breadwinner of many Caribbean economies? With no diversification from the sun, sand and sea offering to tourists, CARICOM countries dependent on tourism will be left bereft of a source of income with the continued rise in sea levels. The issue was taken to the UN Climate Conference in Cancun, where is was suggested that:
with a sea-level rise of one metre, which is now regarded as highly likely by the end of the century, the Caribbean would see at least 149 multi-million dollar tourism resorts damaged or lost and would also see loss or damage of 21 of the Caricom airports, and the inundation of land surrounding 35 of the region’s 44 ports.
Professor Girvan also touched on the issue of crime, and spoke of its adverse effect on our economies. In further research we have come to learn that crime and violence is weighing heavily on the national budgets of countries such as Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica. In a recent report, Jamaica spends U$S385 million, or J$33 billion a year, on indirect medical and other costs related to crime and violence. It goes on to state that:
“These costs are comparable to estimates of the cost of civil war. Based on growth base lines for cross-country panel date in the last 50 years, researchers estimate the costs of civil wars to range from 1.6 percentage to 2.3 percentage of GDP per year of violence. For the average country affected by violence, these effects, compounded over time, can cost the equivalent of up to 30 years of missing GDP growth.” Read more
Crime in the streets of Jamaica
Crime is also destroying our countries’ private sector, without which our countries cannot survive in a neo-liberal globalised age. According to the Private Sector Organisation of Jamaica (PSOJ): “The worst effect of crime is certainly the loss of lives, but crime is also costing the country investment, jobs, economic growth and a better quality of life for all. Read More
The murder of Ricardo Balentine who was stabbed in the neck in broad day light in the streets of Port of Spain, Trinidad, led Gregory Aboud, President of the Downtown Owners and Merchants Association, Port of Spain, to lament that: this type of lawlessness threatens Port of Spain, threatens the tens of thousands of jobs that Port of Spain still provides, threatens the reputation of our country and threatens the future of the capital of our country. Days after this incident, another man was gunned down in broad day-light in Down-town, Port of Spain.
Crime in the streets of Trinidad
The drug trade and trafficking in fire-arms is contributing enormously to a far more dangerous and resilient form of crime, which threatens not only these two countries, but the entire region. Said Baldwin Spencer, Prime Minister of Antigua and Barbuda last week: organised crime has created a great deal of fear, uncertainty and anxiety amongst Caribbean people already having to deal with the uncertainties occasioned by the global economic crisis.
Organised crime has transcended national borders to become a regional problem. Our large un-manned coastlines, as well as our strategic position in the hemisphere makes us prime transhipment routes for narcotics and fire-arms. Increased income inequality, poverty and youth marginalisation are also contributing to the problem. Increasingly, we are witnessing young, poverty stricken, marginalised and vulnerable young men being sucked into the drug trade, fighting over drug turfs. According to Professor Girvan: we are all aware of the alarming increase in gun-related violence associated with the proliferation of criminal gangs warring over the drug trade in several regional countries.
Our energy dependence is also another issue we must address. According to Professor Girvan, most CARICOM countries are energy-dependent and have only survived the spike in energy prices in the 2000s thanks to the generosity of Venezuela through PetroCaribe. No one knows how long this will last.
He is absolutely correct. Lets bare this in mind: a change in political leadership in Venezuela could mean the end of Petrocaribe; political turmoil or social unrest in that country could also mean an end to the arrangement. What will certainly end Petrocaribe eventually, is the end of Venezuela’s oil reserves, or at least when it reaches level where the country can no longer afford to share, or have preferential arrangements with countries such as ours. Let us be reminded that oil is a finite resource.
Political turmoil and the burning of oil fields
Another issue which the Professor spoke of, which CARICOM states must deal with is its debt. As of 2009, the public debt of most of the English-speaking Caribbean countries has exceeded levels that could in any way be defined as sustainable. According to Professor Girvan, except for the Bahamas, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago, at the close of 2009 this subregion showed levels of public debt that ranged from 60% of GDP in Saint Lucia and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, to almost 120% in Jamaica. He went on to quote a study conducted by the Economic Commission of Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) which demonstrates that:
Barbados, Belize, Guyana and Jamaica would have to post primary (fiscal) surpluses of between 2.3% and 3.9% of GDP over the next 20 years in order to reduce their current public debt to 40% of GDP, a level considered to be sustainable…In every case, it is important to bear in mind the marked recessionary effects of such fiscal adjustments, as well as their economic and social costs, which would be magnified if the current recessionary climate and economic slowdown resulting from the international crisis were to continue.
We predict that further indebtedness will be incurred by many CARICOM countries, as we struggle to recover from the global financial crisis. Since the crisis hit, four CARICOM countries have already entered into International Monetary Fund (IMF) programs.
Energy dependence, food dependence, national and transnational crime, debt, poverty and climate change all amounts to what Professor Girvan refers to as a “lethal cocktail”, which WILL significantly worsen our current situation if steps are not taken immediately to correct it.
One would not be surprised to learn that millions of dollars has been spent, consultants have been hired, studies have been carried out and reports and recommendations made toward fixing ALL of the above mentioned issues that are plaguing CARICOM countries.
The Professor outlined the:
- Strategic Plan for Regional Development (now being finalised)
- Regional Food Security Plan
- Jagdeo Initiative for Agriculture
- Regional Agri-Tourism Project
- Renewable Energy Project
- Regional Task Force for Crime and Security, and
- Framework for Promoting Climate Change Resilience
What he did not mention, were the myriad of regional organisations that have been sucking up tax payers’ and donors’ money to address these problems; organisations such as the CARICOM Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (IMPACS), as well as the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCC) are just two examples.
With regard to the initiatives mentioned, in the words of Girvan, most if not all were never implemented, or have been only partially and unevenly implemented. They keep being re-cycled. Spinning top in mud! As far as the organisations go, they are ineffective to say the least.
We agree with the Professor when he noted that it's not that these problems definitely will mean CARICOM countries becoming failed states (a term he despises). Nor do they have to spell the end of CARICOM and the West Indies as we know it. He notes that the problem we have in this region which is preventing us from correcting these problems and moving ahead is one of an implementation. See earlier post where we spoke at length concerning this thorn in our flesh.
In my own opinion, that we have an implementation problem in this region that has been plaguing us for years is cause for not only concern, but suspicion. What I believe, and what the Professor might be too polite or politically correct to state, is that regional heads of governments are deliberately consipiring against its peoples, determined to keep us in poverty, determined to see us suffer. if you think I am going psycho, or becoming a conspiracy theorist, then I am not the only one.
Well-known and highly respected trade specialist, James Moss-Solomon of Grace Kennedy and Company Limited questioned in the Jamaica Observer yesterday (speaking of the Jamaican Government) whether keeping people poor is not a cleverly orchestrated strategy…
Nothing else can explain why proposals after proposals have been made, why studies after studies have been done, why millions of donor and tax payers’ money has been spent, but CARICOM governments refuse to implement decisions that will move us forward.
CLR James once said: the most backward elements in the West Indies are the politicians; they are the deadweight on the West Indian people. Over 50 years later, Mr. James words still ring true. But he went on to give us a solution to this problem; he said: I have always believed that all progress in the West Indies depended upon the mobilisation of the population, and the building of a (regional) party.
It is time for us as a people to rise up and take a stance against our governments, and demand that our future and the future of our children be attended to. Corruption, party politics, ego, self interest are all getting in the way of a sustainable future for all of CARICOM citizens, and it is time we stand against this. In Trinidad and Tobago, the issue of Reshmi Ramnarine, and that of missing pianos are taking precedence over food security. In Jamaica, the Manat and Phelps issue involving the Jamaica labour Party trumps the eradication of poverty. We cannot leave our future up to our heads of Governments, for as CLR James said, political leaders in the West Indies discuss everything else other than serious politics.
The presentation made by the Professor Norman Girvan can be found here.
Courtney Lindsay
On Behalf of the CMCE
